ONLINE BROADCAST

During the conference the financial market experts discuss the actual issues, define the strategy of market development, raise the questions of formation of new practice and knowledge. Follow the most interesting cases online.

19 November

  • 18:30, 19 November

    The Conference has carried its work to completion.

  • 18:29, 19 November

    Question from the audience: «How will China’s influence on the world finances change in the near future?» Сonstantin Gurdgiev: «China is the classic version of the country which caught up with the West due to extensive investments. It is impossible to transfer to growth due to the domestic market in a relatively short time. Therefore, China has a temporary crisis. But a long-term forecast, at the level of 10-15 years, in my opinion is very positive. Yuan will continue to drop, it will not become the reserve currency because the policy of China’s authorities has not credit. Yuan will find its bottom not very soon». Yevgeny Kogan: «In my opinion, the Chinese are all doing very well. They remain the world's largest manufacturing base. The yuan dropping is beneficial for them. Yes, the growth rate declined. But they will be all right».

  • 18:23, 19 November

    Question from the audience: «How real are the risks of a collapse of the derivatives market?» Constantin Gurdgiev: «There will be no collapse. I do not see big risks». Yevgeny Kogan: «I agree with my colleague. Do you expect gold will fall by 30-40 percent? Or the real estate in the USA by50-60 percent? If not, then there is no cause for concern».

  • 18:14, 19 November

    A final question from the moderator: «Bitcoin and a modern financial system: how are they compatible?» Yevgeny Kogan: «We can deal in funny money, we can – in derivatives of funny money, we can – in second derivatives of funny money. I understand gold, I understand real estate. I do not understand the consumption value of the bitcoin. So, I do not invest in it». Constantin Gurdgiev: «Bitcoin is very interesting from the technological point of view. But it does not have any sense as the currency. By the way, the volatility of the bitcoin is greater than of the rouble. But we need another currency as volatile as the dollar Zimbabwe?»

  • 18:10, 19 November

    The fifth question: «To sell or keep gold?» Yevgeny Kogan: «Gold still may go down in price but I think that now it is strongly undervalued. In the long run you can earn on gold». Constantin Gurdgiev: «Yes, gold is undervalued. Yes. You should keep gold in Australia, Switzerland - in neutral countries. Gold had and has a comparable cost 2000 years ago and at the present time.»

  • 18:03, 19 November

    The fourth question: «How high are geopolitical risks in economy?» Yevgeny Kogan: «Any increase in geopolitical risks - a rise in the cost of production. They lead to an increase in uncertainty, investors run away from risks, the economy is slowing. And what is happening now is just the beginning». Constantin Gurdgiev: «From the point of view of financial markets Syria has passed completely unnoticed. But the rehearsal capital of Russia is rather thin... Geopolitics will affect the economy but not financial markets.»

  • 17:59, 19 November

    The third question: «When sanctions against Russia will be removed?» Constantin Gurdgiev answers: «If to talk about sanctions in the financial sector, Europe does not feel any love to the Russian banking system. Russian is not interesting for them. Therefore, there’s no pressure on the authorities of the European Union which will result in relaxation of sanctions». Yevgeny Kogan says: «Sanctions are introduced not because Merkel or Obama want this. In the West there are institutions. They are slow to introduce and slow to remove. Therefore, removing of sanctions will take a long time. In addition, we finished badly: in Europe everything that is connected with Russia stinks. So, European business will not want to deal with Russian even without any sanctions.»

  • 17:57, 19 November

    Dzmitry Dryhaila offers to answer the second question: «Dollar vs. euro: what is more reliable to invest into? Prospects of the rouble?» Constantin Gurdgiev is the first to answer: «Forecasting in the short term is impossible in principle». The point of view of Yevgeny Kogan: «The world epoch of dollar strengthening is not over, there are chances that it will still grow a little bit. It is all very interesting with the rouble: the rouble is the derivative of the Russian budget and prices of oil. The rouble rate is also affected by traders. The liquidity compaction was of benefit for the rouble. At last, there is a seasonality factor. It is obvious, there will be no apocalypse until the end of 2015. At the beginning of 2016 we can expect the rouble rate about 70 roubles per dollar, then again - a slight decrease.»

  • 17:45, 19 November

    Dzmitry Dryhaila offers to answer the first question: «The dynamics of prices on oil: what will us in the near year?» Constantin Gurdgiev answers: «I expect that by the beginning of the next year the price will fall up to 33-35 dollars per barrel. There is too much oil in the market, there is no one to sell it to. There is a chance by the end of 2016 that the price will increase up to 60 dollars». Yevgeny Kogan expresses his opinion: «The beginning of the year – it’s the exit to the market of Iranian oil, it will have pressure on the market, there will be overstocking. On the other hand, the world has entered into the position of geopolitical instability, any disturbances are possible. If it was only the economy but the policy interferes, so I am not going to make an accurate forecast.»

  • 17:30, 19 November

    The work in the format question-answer begins. The professor of Trinity College (Dublin) Constantin Gurdgiev and Yevgeny Kogan, professor of the Higher School of Economics, answer. The moderator – vice president of the group of companies TeleTrade Dzmitry Dryhaila.

  • 17:21, 19 November

    The conclusion that can be drawn on the basis of today’s performances is as follows: the situation in the world economy will remain unstable in the coming years, in Russia – in particular. But for the traders this is the time which may become the time of great success. More often there were recommendations to play «in short», to increase the number of transactions so that to earn a little but regularly not hoping for an unexpected big roll.

  • 16:54, 19 November

    Broadcast interruption until 17:30.

  • 16:53, 19 November

    Gurdgiev: «Data flows are so high so that banks and regulators cannot cope with their procession. The speed and complexity of transactions increase. There is the completion where this one is the winner who processes the data faster linking this process with its overall strategy».

  • 16:49, 19 November

    Gurdgiev: «The availability of liquidity will decrease. High profits can be obtained only by increasing the risk level».

  • 16:48, 19 November

    Gurdgiev: «The duration of financial cycles reduces (from 10 to 2-3 years). Thereat we continue to use standard models».

  • 16:45, 19 November

    Gurdgiev: «The development of technologies complicates the interaction in the market. The speed of transactions increases. It changes the market face, its nature. What seemed to be reliable ceases to play its part. For instance, gold is not longer a safe haven, it cannot be used as a hedge tool».

  • 16:40, 19 November

    Gurdgiev: «Bitcoin seems to be a real currency but for the investor is difficult to understand whether he can rely on the mathematical algorithm which determines the value of the bitcoin than, for instance, on Elvira Nabiullina».

  • 16:31, 19 November

    Gurdgiev: «The younger generation has fewer and fewer possibilities to increase incomes but the same generation knows and understands better how to act in risky situations. The younger generation does not see itself as investors».

  • 16:31, 19 November

    Gurdgiev: «In order to survive we will have to introduce new approaches, and it is not an easy task».

  • 16:28, 19 November

    Gurdgiev: «For Russia a complex problem – financing of banks is made difficult due to the imposition of sanctions. Not only traders but consumers will not be able to boast of a strong position. Incomes will continue to decline for a long time – until 2020 and later».

  • 16:26, 19 November

    Gurdgiev: «Liquidity will gradually leave financial markets and stock markets. The only model which one should adhere to in the worsening situation does not exist. But obviously it is necessary to look for the points where it is possible to change the clients’s behavior in the desired direction. It is necessary to offer differentiated products to the market. One must be ready for long-term relations with the clients».

  • 16:24, 19 November

    Gurdgiev: «I do not expect that the Federal Reserve System will sharply increase the rates».

  • 16:24, 19 November

    Gurdgiev: «It is becoming more and more complicated to make people use new products and services».

  • 16:23, 19 November

    Gurdgiev: «In the recent time the situation in the US labor market situation has deteriorated. The level of income of the young population is decreasing. Negative expectations make people save for a rainy day – these are savings of poor quality».

  • 16:20, 19 November

    Gurdgiev: «People want to interact more closely with their lives rather than financial institutes».

  • 16:19, 19 November

    Gurdgiev: «Questions of demand are connected with behavioral attitudes. There was a time when the trust to banks was substantially undermined. The trust to those who uses new approaches is much higher».

  • 16:11, 19 November

    Constantin Gurdgiev: «I would like to talk to you about the global trends in the field of finances. The first trend isconnected with the demand for financial services and products. The second moment - technologies in the field of finances. The third one – the change in the comparative weight of different financial institutions».

  • 16:10, 19 November

    Constantin Gurdgiev, the professor of the chamber of finances of Trinity College (Dublin), takes the microphone.

  • 16:07, 19 November

    Vladimir Rojankovski: «The main possibility for traders in the next year – the possibility to play on short fluctuations of the market».

  • 16:05, 19 November

    Piotr Pushkarev: «Stock markets in the US and Europe are strongly overheated, I am expecting the downward movement. It will pull the shares of Russian enterprises down, and that’s when they should be bought. I would also recommend to have a closer look at the Swiss franc».

  • 16:03, 19 November

    Andrew Lane: «Everyone is talking about the pair dollar/ euro. But look at the pair Australian dollar/ New Zealand dollar. Over the past 30 years there were not many movements, the economies of these countries are closely linked, therefore the dynamics graph in this pair is very narrow. And for the last year the bottom was reached, the increase will take place soon. It makes sense to pay attention to this pair in the next two-three years, to monitor the dynamics on a monthly basis».

  • 16:02, 19 November

    David Aranzabal: «In 2016 we are expecting a great instability, and this means – great possibilities for traders».

  • 15:59, 19 November

    Piotr Pushkarev: «It is important that neither American nor European economy can live without a significant capital inflow. A strong dollar cannot provide such an inflow. But we still cannot weaken the dollar. So the solution of this problem is delayed, at the present this solution does not exist».

  • 15:55, 19 November

    Question from the audience: «So, where is the dollar strength? Can the dollar fail all the same?» Rojankovski’s answer: «I cannot predict the state of the dollar in three, four, five years. The situation with the dollar is very non-trivial. But, from my point of view, there is a general perception that to weaken the dollar significantly is just dangerous. There is a probability of adjustment, but this probability is low.»

  • 15:54, 19 November

    The presentations of the conference speakers will be available at the official site of the conference cmconference.ruin a few of days.

  • 15:50, 19 November

    Vladimir Rojankovski: «The world economy has not recovered after the crisis of 2008 yet. If after such a short time one more collapse of market takes place, then it will strongly affect the world financial system and the world economy. And the reason that the dollar is so expensive is that in such a situation it cannot be weakened. It affects the US economy but it helps the world economy».

  • 15:49, 19 November

    Pushkarev: «I am not trading in euro/ dollar up to the 3rd of December, and more probable until the 16th, that is until the next meeting of the Federal Reserve System».

  • 15:40, 19 November

    Pushkarev: «An expensive dollar - one of the reasons of cheap oil».

  • 15:37, 19 November

    Pushkarev: «In December 2015 there’s a high probability that a series of increase in rates of the Federal Reserve System will be launched».

  • 15:22, 19 November

    Piotr Pushkarev: «This year most attendants made money on medium-term transactions. The first case: euro-dollar. The second: rouble-oil. The third: all speculations connected with the actions of the Federal Reserve System. I would like to focus on the subject rouble-oil. A lot of people in everyday life keep track of the rouble rate and the oil price but a few people use it. A lot of them missed the moment when the rate reached 50 roubles per dollar and came up and higher. So how can you save your money at least from inflation? Can it be done with the use of oil? Yes, if to bring this money not to the bank but at least to use it for trading in markets».

  • 15:17, 19 November

    Lane: «In the future we will not use trading platforms. You’ll just be going down the street and talking with your iPhone: well, iPhone, let’s make a transaction in the pair euro/ dollar, let’s earn. And iPhone will perform your task. But it is the thing of the distant future, and now the role of the computer as the trader’s assistant will be increasing which will help to avoid errors, to find the necessary strategy».

  • 15:14, 19 November

    Lane: «The price of the company’s shares may vary depending on the attitude thereto, its activity in the community. This is also the subject of analysis».

  • 15:14, 19 November

    Ivan Potekhin: «I would like to talk about infrastructure projects. The Football World Championship will be held in 11 Russian cities. It requires the construction or reconstruction of several airports, new roads, sports facilities at once. All these projects have already financed, it will be impossible to join them as investors. What can we expect in the future? In my opinion, it’s medical infrastructure. Medicine becomes paid, and it opens up opportunities for investors».

  • 15:11, 19 November

    Lane: «The amount of information is growing in leaps and bounds. The technologies that will allow to extract the facts that are necessary for computer analysis from this ocean of information in real time are important».

  • 15:08, 19 November

    Lane: «If the technologies of this kind are developed, there will be no administrators of funds, there will be no managers: you will ask your computer how the price of coffee will behave in accordance with the current situation in the world? And the computer will give you expert advice».

  • 15:07, 19 November

    Lane: «Robots are taking over those functions that were performed by people yesterday. In the USA it is very fashionable to talk about automatic advisers. Robots are analyzing the market, robots are trading in».

  • 15:00, 19 November

    Andrew Lane: «The Bank of England thinks that 15 mln working places out of 30 mln in Great Britain will disappear due to the emergence of new technologies. A half of specialties will disappear. It will also affect the work of traders».

  • 14:57, 19 November

    Rojankovski: «The conclusion as Kozma Prutkov said – see the root! We, those who are trading in different kinds of assets, should look at the dollar index. As long as the dollar is strong, we may not be afraid of serious disturbances».

  • 14:53, 19 November

    Rojankovski: «In April-June of 2007 the dollar dropped to a very low position. The oil began to grow as yeasty-leavened. The market crash of autumn 2008, in my opinion, was directly connected with the fact that the dollar was very weak in respect of the basket of six currencies».

  • 14:51, 19 November

    Rojankovski: «The part of functions of gold is displaced by the dollar. In fact, the strengthening US dollar has become the most effective tool against the “bubbles” in assets. This allows us to trade in gainfully and not to be afraid of excessive risks».

  • 14:46, 19 November

    Rojankovski: «Since 2008 the dollar ceased to be not only a currency, it became the means of universal funding while remaining the means of payment, savings and money holdings».

  • 14:45, 19 November

    Rojankovski: «For 2014 the investments into the dollar brought about 14%. In all parameters, it is not a bad investment».

  • 14:40, 19 November

    Vladimir Rojankovski: «There are two types of participation in the market: trading and investments. They are not antagonistic. I would like to settle on such a phenomenon as the US dollar index which shows the relation of the dollar to a basket of six currencies. This index gives us more food for thought».

  • 14:35, 19 November

    Aranzabal: «We should learn to wait the right moment to perform transactions. There should be more transactions, and the percent of successful transactions – higher».

  • 14:30, 19 November

    Aranzabal: «If the market sharply reacts to any news, if there is a serious burst, then we are waiting until the price reaches the corresponding level of Bollinger’s line, and until it falls outside its limits. We use RSI filter as a filter. The second hint: if the burst is insignificant, we are waiting until the situation is normal».

  • 14:28, 19 November

    Aranzabal: «In the market where there is a trend to increase, we buy every time when the price reaches a medium level of Bollinger’s line. If there is a trend to decrease – we act on the contrary, we sell. And every year when opening the trades you should have a supply of available funds. The first reason why people lose money is namely the absence of such a supply of available funds».

  • 14:27, 19 November

    Aranzabal: «We earn on small profit, on every transaction. The probability of our success is increased if we earn a little but we often earn, each day».

  • 14:26, 19 November

    Aranzabal: «Bollinger’s lines will help us to calculate the points at which we make transactions. Every time when the price is reaching the upper margin we sell, reaching the lower margin – we buy. But it works only in a stable market».

  • 14:16, 19 November

    Aranzabal: «Are you familiar with the concept Bollinger’s line (band)? When we are talking about these lines then there are three such lines: upper, medium and lower. We can develop three different strategies with their use: to trade in a certain range, to trade within the certain trend or to choose its own individual strategy».

  • 14:09, 19 November

    David Aranzabal: «Who of you is sure that can earn? Has anybody earned its first million? To do this, there are lots of ways! Including – trading. But it’s not easy, and for this you will have to sweat. The first idea which I would like to share with you is connected with volatility. The year of 2016 will be not bad in terms of volatility. The instability gives us more chances to earn!».

  • 14:01, 19 November

    The second session of the conference is beginning. Topic – «New tools and technologies of the market». In the discussion participate: Piotr Pushkarev (head analyst of TeleTrade), Vladimir Rojankovski (Director of the analytical department of the investment company «OK broker»), David Aranzabal (the founder of the school FX for a Living), Andrew Lane (executive director of Acuity Trading) and Ivan Potekhin (project manager of the department of project and structural financing of Gazprombank). The moderator – Olga Suslova (marketing director in the division Facilities and products of the financial market, Google Russia).

  • 13:15, 19 November

    Session: «The world economy and Russia: roles, opportunities, players» completed. The discussion of the topic «New tools and technologies of the market» will begin at 14-00.

  • 12:45, 19 November

    Birgit Hansl: «The labor force in Russia is cheap at the present. But you can play on this only if your population is large. So, you will not have to count on the fact that Russia will take the place of China».

  • 12:40, 19 November

    Alessandro Magnoli Bocchi: «With regard to state capitalism, privatization is not the answer, not the solution of the problem. The answer, solution, medicine – this is just a competition».

  • 12:36, 19 November

    Nikolay Kascheyev: «In the next year we will still see the flocks of «black swans».

  • 12:33, 19 November

    Nikolay Kascheyev: «The only way out of economic stagnation is investing into new businesses. Is there a climate which will be favourable for this? I strongly doubt. And not only due to economic reasons. To break the dead-lock you will need a serious political will. We need serious efforts to increase the characteristics of the human capital. You need a strategic vision of the situation, and this is absent, absolutely».

  • 12:31, 19 November

    Nikolay Kascheyev: «At the present day there are few solvent borrowers. Among natural persons – there’s a peak of overdue credits more than in 2009. We cannot expand crediting against the background of drop in real incomes».

  • 12:29, 19 November

    Nikolay Kascheyev: «State capitalism - is something completely opposite of the competition. For instance, if we say that Russian state banks compete with each other then we play cunning: each of them: each of them occupies its own niche».

  • 12:15, 19 November

    Birgit Hansl: «In Russia, we have to deal with the state capitalism economy. And it is not an ideological cliché, but reality. Can such system develop with no state investments? If no, then where new sources of investments are to be looked for? At present, the state clearly lacks sufficient funds to preserve the state capitalism model. Being an economist, I am pretty much interested what way the country will choose under new conditions. And it will have to choose».

  • 12:10, 19 November

    Alessandro Magnoli Bocchi: «What can Russia do under the head wind conditions? Short-term perspective: workforce is inexpensive, hence the production of goods is cheap as well – this may support the industry. But if anyone wants to sell, someone needs to buy, and there are not many buyers out there. Thus, it is just a temporary measure. In perspective, the economy diversification is needed no matter how difficult it may be».

  • 12:04, 19 November

    Tom Levinson: «Right now it is hard for business to make any principal decisions – it is all very uncertain right now».

  • 12:03, 19 November

    Tom Levinson: «It’s interesting to note that the economies of the Euro region and Japan decreased as compared with 2009. This is confirmed by the fact that the situation is not an easy one even in the developed countries. Lately, Russia has been suffering from numerous international and local problems. Many countries look enviously at the Russian resources, but when you have such resources in your possession, it is very hard to diversify. And it will be particularly difficult to do at present, when the oil prices dropped so drastically. Yet another moment. When Russia imposed counter sanctions, there was a hope for acceleration in development of the Russian business. But the hopes turned out to be vain. Perhaps, due to lack of certainty in keeping the rules of the games for more or less extended period of time».

  • 11:56, 19 November

    Birgit Hansl: «I would like to be an optimist, but it all look not so good. We see serious problems in the developing economies. The investments into these markets are getting less, the prices for raw commodities are getting down. It is not clear where the development may come from. It is happening worldwide, and Russia is not alone here. There are certain possibilities related to the low rate of the rouble. This would help, for instance, to develop production, however competition in the global production is immense. If you produce industrial goods for export, each year it is getting harder and harder to enter the global markets. No one wants to give up even a small share of the market. Everything is changing in the world... Yes – the population is getting older. But the older people consume less. Hence, the change in the consumption pattern and related problems. There are no ready recipes here, no simple answers. Earlier we could say – we need to export more, and everything will be good. Today it is not enough. Russia has many assets including highly literate population, rich natural resources, serious innovation potential. The question is that we need for these assets to bring profit».

  • 11:43, 19 November

    Bocchi: «Now, as for Russia. Yes, Russia is going through a crisis right now, but if compared with the 1998 crisis, it is just a small splash. Question: how Russia can move to the categories of the countries with high level of income? You are in the middle income trap, just like Turkey and Malaysia. What is the way out of this trap? The only way to get out of it is to build innovative economy».

  • 11:42, 19 November

    Bocchi: «I believe that the global economy is undergoing transformations, it is obvious, in my opinion. The comparative contribution of various industries into the economy is changing: the contribution of agriculture is getting smaller, for instance. The cost of companies that do not produce anything is growing: Facebook is just an interface but it is worth billions of dollars. There appear companies with no tangible assets... AirBnB, Uber etc. Japanization of the economy continues – the population is getting older, the savings are getting bigger, the investments are getting smaller. Taking into account these and many other factors my viewpoint for the nearest 5 years is rather pessimistic».

  • 11:35, 19 November

    Yegor Susin: «There is this term used on the marker - dead cat bounce. This is the situation we are currently in. We experience stagnation, and there are no growth drivers seen. 2016 may be relatively not so bad as compared with 2015, however further perspectives of the economy raise questions: there are no structural changes, no growth factors».

  • 11:30, 19 November

    Nikolay Kascheyev: «We can talk about some tactical changes related to hitting the bottom: no economy can drop below the zero point. A slight growth may be seen just because there is no place to fall. I am more concerned with the perspective of long-term development. And we see no qualitative changes here. How can we overcome the stagnation that started back in 2012-2013? There are no valid grounds to get calm or all the more to celebrate the triumph».

  • 11:26, 19 November

    Tom Levinson: «A year ago we witnessed a very difficult period for the financial system of Russia, 2015 comes to an end in a better state. I think that we should look forward to 2016 with reserved optimism. As for the rouble, we all saw how the rouble collapsed: a various number of negative factors added up – from a drop of oil prices to imposed sanctions. The situation improved during the last six months and became more controllable. As for the perspectives, there are risks related to the situation in Ukraine, but these risks are not so significant. The only important factor that will influence the rouble rate will the oil prices. I believe that the oil prices will remain low and may get even lower. In this case the rouble rate will be equal to 70 roubles per month».

  • 11:23, 19 November

    Birgit Hansl: «Good news for Russia – Russia transferred to a flexible currency rate, and it helps to balance the situation. However, serious adjustments are still needed in the fiscal part, and the economy structure shall be modified. I think these shall be the primary tasks for 2016 to focus on».

  • 11:22, 19 November

    Participants of the discussion: Birgit Hansl (World Bank), Tom Levinson (Sberbank CIB), Nikolay Kascheyev (Promsvyazbank), Yegor Susin (Gazprombank), Mikael Gorsky (RBC).

  • 11:11, 19 November

    Alessandro Magnoli Bocchi ended his speech. The participants proceed to discussing the role of Russia in the world economy, is possibilities.

  • 11:05, 19 November

    Question to Bocchi from the audience: «What is your opinion on bitcoins and crypto currency?» Bocchi’s answer: «The role of crypto currencies is still ahead. But right now these currencies cannot ensure a feeling of comfort for the investors, they are not a full-fledged currency. If major banks supported crypto currencies or created their own currencies, this would have changed the picture, and they would have become more attractive for the investors and the Central Banks».

  • 11:03, 19 November

    Question to Bocchi from the audience: «There were numerous publications last year that the gold will rise in price, but it never happened. Please, comment on this». Bocchi’s comment: «I would not rely much on the gold. Maximum 5 per cent in the investment portfolio may be given out for purchase of precious metals. Gold cannot be considered the most favourable type of investments. It may only be considered a way to make yourself a little more safe, protect yourself from excessive risks».

  • 10:58, 19 November

    Question to Alessandro Magnoli Bocchi from the audience: «What will happen if the RBC rate does not change?» Bocchi’s answer: «Dollar and euro (but dollar in particular!) are the preferential currencies that everyone needs. They are expensive, they serve a means accepted everywhere. Dollar and euro account for 90% of all transactions. 80% of all savings are made in these currencies. And they won’t be affected. The currencies of developing markets may become cheaper».

  • 10:56, 19 November

    Bocchi: «The best portfolio may become a non-traditional investments portfolio. Real property and shares of private companies seem attractive to me».

  • 10:52, 19 November

    Bocchi: «Blue chips” are still reliable. However I wouldn’t be very enthusiastic about the high volatility instruments in 2016».

  • 10:47, 19 November

    Bocchi: «We see practically around the world, except for China, that the markets are feeling better than the economies. We shall be worried: either the global economy will be developing, but one shouldn’t hope for it, or the markets will be brought into compliance with the economies. It means that market adjustments are possible up to 10% in general».

  • 10:45, 19 November

    Bocchi: «Besides, the political risks are high in Russia».

  • 10:44, 19 November

    Bocchi: «So what are the risks we shall be afraid of? First of all, the most terrible thing that may happen is the loss of trust in the Central Banks. I don’t think it will come to this but there is certain uneasiness about this. The Central Banks shall be predictable. When you say that you will raise the rates, and then you don’t do it, it leads to loss of confidence. There were such precedents before. The second risk is the risk related to imposition of new sanctions against Russia. Expansion of sanctions due to power industry – this is what we should watch out for. The third risk is that Iran and Turkey may get involved in the war in the Middle East».

  • 10:43, 19 November

    Bocchi: «India. The things are a bit more stable here than in China».

  • 10:40, 19 November

    Bocchi: «Now, as for China. The economy growth was supported by major infrastructure projects. These projects were implemented due to cheap workforce available in immense quantities. But we often saw that in China the roads are built leading to nowhere, unnecessary bridges ... China reached this stage of development when the home demand grew drastically. However China shall be ready for the challenges in the future. If you a Chinese, you have nothing to invest into. You may buy property or play with shares at the exchange market. But this is very risky».

  • 10:39, 19 November

    Bocchi: «In reality, the currencies of the developed counties started to act as the currencies of the developing countries. This is not the way it should be, but we all see unprecedented exchange fluctuations. International currency system shall be revised».

  • 10:38, 19 November

    Bocchi: «Japanese Yen dropped down by 30% over 2.5 years, and it may drop even lower».

  • 10:37, 19 November

    Bocchi: «Now, as for Japan. The country is stuck in stagnation. But this is not the only country stuck. We witness Japanization of the world economy: the population is getting older, the savings are getting bigger, and the investments are getting smaller».

  • 10:35, 19 November

    Bocchi: «The Central Banks all around the world started to decrease their interest rate and increase the amounts of money emission after the 2008 crisis. Now we see lack of coordination. The USA is doing what is best for it, not for the world. This will lead to deterioration of the world economy and will put pressure on euro. The pessimistic forecast of euro to dollar ratio - 1:1, optimistic - 1.2:1».

  • 10:34, 19 November

    Bocchi: «Many corporate borrowers will find themselves in a difficult situation as they took the credits in dollars and euro and they need to repay it with roubles that went down in value».

  • 10:33, 19 November

    Bocchi: «It is expected that in December the Federal Treasury of the USA will increase the interest rate. But it is not important whether it happens in December or later. The important thing here is how high the rate will be raised».

  • 10:32, 19 November

    Bocchi: «This is a conundrum: the global economy is weak, and the markets are string. The Central Banks have issued a vast of money, liquidity has grown, and markets have grown. The traders should be ready for it».

  • 10:29, 19 November

    Bocchi: «In 2016 Russia will experience a slight revival of the economy, but in general the situation will remain complicated».

  • 10:28, 19 November

    Bocchi: «The developing markets account for 61% of the total economic growth in the world. But their growth rates are slower than expected».

  • 10:26, 19 November

    Bocchi: «The worst assets classes are the shares of developing countries, and the best assets are the bonds of developed countries».

  • 10:25, 19 November

    Bocchi: «Russia looks better than other countries. The rouble has dropped in value significantly. And now it is expected to get stronger».

  • 10:24, 19 November

    Bocchi: «Leading world economies are in stagnation».

  • 10:20, 19 November

    Bocchi: «Now the stability level is higher than in 2008, but a lot depends on what is going on in the USA. The dollar will continue to grow in value. The credits taken by the developing countries from the USA will be repaid to the USA. The problems will remain in the Euro region».

  • 10:17, 19 November

    Bocchi: «Real economic growth will slow down. The risks are growing. The markets will demonstrate volatility. However the volatile markets are god for traders. It is just important to understand the trends».

  • 10:00, 19 November

    The second day of the conference has started. The speaker is Alessandro Magnoli Bocchi – the founder of Foresight Advisors, economic advisor with Burgan Bank.

18 November

  • 17:04, 18 November

    The first day of conference has come to an end. The conference will be continued tomorrow starting from 10.00 a.m.

  • 17:02, 18 November

    Igor Tikhiy (TeleTrade): «Clear rules of the games, confidence in the equal position of the layers is important for the investors».

  • 16:56, 18 November

    Question to Mikael Gorsky: «What has happened in France now suggests of how important the role of the state is. And we say that the state shall leave the market. Won’t a common man be left eye-to-eye with the harsh reality?» Answer of Mikael Gorsky: «Different states treat the problem of financial market regulation differently. A good example is the attitude to bitcoin. Here, in Russia, they are ready to equal the use of bitcoins to counterfeiting. But it is accepted in other countries... Flexibility and ability to respond to the changes is important for the state».

  • 16:52, 18 November

    A question from the audience from an employee of the representing partner of TeleTrade from Ufa: «One of my clients opened a request to buy shares of Apple. How do you see the perspectives? Will the Apple shares go up in price?» Duthoit’s answer: «Ок, Google!»

  • 16:45, 18 November

    Duthoit: «Those who treat any problem as knowingly solvable are in a more beneficial position».

  • 16:36, 18 November

    Pierric Duthoit (Google): «I am not a financial specialist, I am more into marketing, digital sphere. I will tell about the role of a person in the world of automatization and Big Data. Even today many tasks are solved by the machines better than by humans. It is a bit sad. But the good thing is that the machines help us make the right decisions. My phone knows a lot about me: how much I sleep, when I eat, who I talk to. Pretty soon the machines will know about your clients more than you do. The role of automation in our life will be growing. We have lived in the world of knowledge, the world of answers: the leader is who knows more answers. Now the leaders will be those who will be able to form new questions correctly, who will be ready for constant change: we no longer wait for an answer, we wait for changes».

  • 16:31, 18 November

    Korovkin: «Robot in finances» is a very interesting subject. If this thought is to be developed, we’ll see that the secret of success has been always predetermined by the fact that one of the players at the market evaluates the situation differently than the others. Robots eliminate asymmetry. Here – Google cars: they don’t get into accidents, and nothing interesting happens on the road. Finances of the remote future – will it be possible to make profit of them? It remains a question».

  • 16:25, 18 November

    Vladimir Korovkin (Moscow School of Management Skolkovo): «There are great many different practices related to financial mediation. These are useful practices in their majority. To give money only to those borrowers who are guaranteed to pay them back is a vicious system. If Rockefeller comes to a bank, he’ll be given a credit at the Libir rate. But the person who really needs money may be denied. But someone must take a risk? Someone must mode the economy forward?...»

  • 16:20, 18 November

    Igor Tikhiy (TeleTrade): «Our company operates in different countries of the world and everywhere it works differently – a difference in the technological development of any particular country, its readiness to accept new things shall also be taken into account. There are standards of conduct at the market, there is market regulation – all this hampers forward movement, and here you need to adapt and readjust».

  • 16:12, 18 November

    Gorsky: «I’d like to add a small observation here. Ask yourself: what part of your work undergoes a qualitative change with the growth of computer power, with new software? This part is the area of your risk, these are the spheres that computers will displace us in soon or later. Google makes unmanned cars. Drivers become irrelevant. Every such story has something that wants to deprive you of your piece of bread. A man is getting less and less space at the financial services market».

  • 16:08, 18 November

    A question from the audience to Evgeny Plaksenkov: «How can the trend of increasing the state roles in business and the hope for development of private initiative, small and medium business co-exist?» Evgeny Plaksenkov answers: «SMB is not in the trend. Just have a look how much money small enterprises have lost in the banks that were deprived of their licenses. These sums of money are much more the entrepreneurs have received within the framework of state support programs».

  • 16:06, 18 November

    Gorsky: «Read, think, listen. Otherwise you’ll die as professionals!»

  • 16:04, 18 November

    Gorsky: «Bitcoins appeared. None of the traditional algorithms to determine their value is working here, everything is different. Are you ready for this? How will you sell bitcoins to your clients? And this a death threat to what you are doing now».

  • 15:55, 18 November

    Mikael Gorsky: «I see that the youth is conservative: I cannot persuade my own daughter try a new sort of pizza. All conservatives are sure that tomorrow will be just like today. However tomorrow your way to earn living may be totally out of date. May be, you should start growing mini tomatoes? Kodak has died. Brand Polaroid was sold to the Chinese. The business of tour operators is coming to its end ... Working at the financial services market, you are sure that your company will stay alive without any changes?»

  • 15:54, 18 November

    Mikael Gorsky (editor in chief and general director of the publishing house «Olymp-business») asks the audience: «Who is working with TeleTrade here? (approximately two thirds of the audience raise their hands. - Ed.) Who thinks of oneself as a seller of financial services, and who – as a trader? There are much fewer traders here!»

  • 15:52, 18 November

    Plaksenkov: «When choosing your spheres of competence (financial analysis, investment planning, controlling etc.), I would think today what will be taken by robots, and what will be left for a man. When the computer beat the person in chess, it became clear that analytical functions will be taken over by computers. Focus on what cannot be computerized».

  • 15:50, 18 November

    Plaksenkov: «An example of modern financial – exactly financial! – company is Uber that has taken the philosophy of modern consumption as the basis».

  • 15:48, 18 November

    Plaksenkov: «Payments, financial technologies, inclusiveness – three reference points that one can built its happiness in future».

  • 15:46, 18 November

    Plaksenkov: «Payments are the blood system of financial markets. The most important task now is to understand how payments will be made in future. There is bitcoin, will there be “bitrouble”? This is one of the questions that you should ask yourself».

  • 15:44, 18 November

    Plaksenkov: «Futurologists become employed by the companies: Google, Cisco... Futurologists build a new world and new business».

  • 15:40, 18 November

    Plaksenkov: «Recently the subject of sustainable development was discussed in Skolkovo. I believe, it was not about finances – about ecology, social responsibility. The analysis showed that those financial companies that accept sustainable development as the basis of success, have drawn their money from recourse companies, hazardous production etc. – capitalization of such companies increased 10 times».

  • 15:38, 18 November

    Plaksenkov: «It is necessary to see the whole picture and to systematize it by individual clusters. For example, as for the political cluster: «statism» of business is taking place. If the state does not support you, your business will remain «boutique-like». Financial cluster: the structure of financial markets is changing, «parallel banking» is developing, etc. Socially-demographical cluster: agglomeration of cities continues. In China there may appear the cities with population equal to population of Russia. It is necessary to configure your business with account of these and many other factors».

  • 15:32, 18 November

    Plaksenkov: «Assets are evil. Excess of resources keeps from getting creative. Business shall be enterprising».

  • 15:32, 18 November

    Plaksenkov: «Manage future value, not the accumulated value».

  • 15:30, 18 November

    Evgeny Plaksenkov: «When you see a black swan in front of you – slowly but confidently saddle it up».

  • 15:29, 18 November

    There are already technologies that may help you to get rid of plastic cards: all you need is on your phone, you don’t need a credit card any more. But how many of those who present here use these technologies?

  • 15:20, 18 November

    Plaksenkov recalls the only visit of Bill Gates to Moscow. During his visit he was asked a question: «What to make a stake on?» Touchscreen, mobile devise, intuitive technologies. It was long before the iPhone era. Gates guessed it right, but the first to realize and become the market leaders was Apple. It means that it is necessary not only to catch up with the trend in time, but also to use this new knowledge.

  • 15:15, 18 November

    Evgeny Plaksenkov from Moscow School of Management Skolkovo tells about the necessity to catch the right trends. The market of financial services is going through the greatest transformations since the Great Depression. This is the Great Crisis. This is the Great Challenge.

  • 15:10, 18 November

    The conference opens with a discussion on the future of financial markets: on new challenges, on the role of start-up projects, on what and how to learn.